The ECB released its monthly report today and nothing exciting has really changed. The ECB is still buying Spanish and Italian bonds in an effort to maintain confidence and keep borrowing costs low. China is supposed to release New Yuan Loans data today and that could be market moving especially for AUD. US Trade Balance data will probably not make much of a difference but we have such a low amount of data today some traders will probably just pick something to latch onto.
Headline Event Risk Today
0830 EDT Canada New Housing Price Index
0830 EDT US Trade Balance
0030 EDT Japan Industrial Production
The Forex Daily Outlook for the EUR USD is for more bearishness. The EUR and the USD both are not making decisive moves right now. When the breakout finally occurs it will probably be very explosive. I’m still bearish short-term, medium-term and long-term but we have to see if the market agrees. Right now it appears like it wants to move higher.
The Forex Daily Outlook for the USD JPY is for continued losses. Nothing can stop this pair moving lower right now. I think we’ll still see 75.00 at a minimum before the next medium term retracement. A large buyer came in earlier today and caused a surge but the surge has already been fully retraced.
The Forex Daily Outlook for the GBP USD is for continued losses. The GBP is much more bearish than the EUR. The GBP-USD has made a clear breakout to the downside so now we just wait on more continuation.
The Forex Daily Outlook for the USD CHF is for renewed losses. The CHF continues to depreciate this morning. The Swiss National Bank is actually discussing a peg to the Euro as a temporary measure to curb gains. That would be a drastic measure but if they do peg the CHF it would be very surprising if it was in the very short term. The USD-CHF move up continues to look corrective so I look for more losses. The are currently better USD trades.
The Forex Daily Outlook for the AUD USD is for more losses. Today this pair looks like it could continue its upward retracement higher to perhaps 1.0500 but it could really go either way. I will trade this pair as I see it develop today. Right now I like Euro and Pound shorts better.
The Forex Daily Outlook for the USD CAD is for more gains. This is much like the inverse of the AUD-USD again. The pair could travel to a new low perhaps around the 50% Fibonacci retracement. The higher probability still favors the upside.
The Forex Daily Outlook for the NZD USD is for more losses. In the short term this pair is more bearish than the AUD-USD. Keep a watch on both of these pairs to determine if we will see another drop today. One will probably let you know earlier than the other.